A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
