Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
